Open TYNDP Scenarios

The modelling for the reference, National Trends+ (NT+), and the deviation, Distributed Energy (DE) and Global Ambition (GA), scenarios differ in terms of assumptions, storyline and method (capacity expansion vs dispatch modelling).

Here we explain these modelling differences and how these differences have been implemented into open-tyndp. We discuss the relevant configuration settings and the implications of these implementation decisions.

Background information can be found in the report from ENTSO-E and ENTSO-G TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Methdoology Report.

A description of the storylines underlying the NT+, DE and GA scenarios can be found in the TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Storyline Report

National Trends+

The NT+ scenario was developed in alignment with the National Energy and Climate Plans that were available during the development of TYNDP 2024 (e.g. during 2023).

• Uses predefined final energy demands and generation capacity collected from transmission system operators

• Modelled as a pure dispatch problem, with fixed generation capacities for 2030 and 2040

• All energy carriers included in final energy demand, not just electricity and gas (as with TYNDP < 2024)

Deviation Scenarios

• Begins with National Trends+ 2030 scenario results for grid topology, generation capacity and final energy demands

• Uses predefined final energy demands for 2040 and 2050 collected from transmission system operators and public consultation

• Capacity expansion model is used to identify where and when investment in renewable generation capacity and storage is required

• Exogenous constraints on generation investment are imposed to force:

  • no new nuclear power capacity

  • all existing fossil gas plants are decommissioned

• Upper and lower bounds are also imposed to force trajectories for

  • the expansion of solar, wind, prosumer batteries and large scale batteries

  • H2 import potentials

Distributed Energy

This scenario pictures a pathway achieving EU27 carbon neutrality target by 2050 with higher European Economy. The scenario is driven by a willingness of the society to achieve high levels of independence in terms of energy supply and goods of strategic importance (e. g., industrial and agricultural produce). It translates into both a behavioural shift and strong decentralised drive towards decarbonisation through local initiatives by citizens, communities and businesses, supported by authorities

—TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Storyline Report

Global Ambition

This scenario pictures a pathway to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, driven by a fast and global move towards the Paris Agreement targets. It translates into development of a very wide range of technologies (many being centralised) and the use of global energy trade as a tool to accelerate decarbonisation.

—TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Storyline Report

Open TYNDP Implementation

The TYNDP scenarios are defined in config/config.tyndp.yaml and config/scenarios.tyndp.yaml.

The NT+ scenario is defined in full in config/config.tyndp.yaml and the modifications to NT+ to form the two deviation scenarios are defined in config/scenarios.tyndp.yaml.

Config Key	Description
run	Run naming/prefix and scenario file reference; scenarios enabled.
foresight	Sets planning foresight to myopic.
tyndp_scenario	Selects TYNDP scenario code (NT).
scenario	Defines cluster set and planning horizons (2030, 2040).
countries	Lists modeled countries/regions.
snapshots	Time span for simulation (2009 calendar year).
co2_budget	Placeholder (empty).
electricity	Core electricity settings—network base, extendable/conventional/renewable carriers, TYNDP mappings, storage types, renewable capacity estimation toggle, PECD profiles (years/techs), PEMMDB hydro profiles and capacities (years/techs), transmission limit version.
atlite	Cutout configuration for weather data (extent, resolution, time).
links	Default link power limits (p_max_pu/p_min_pu).
transmission_projects	Enables projects; all source sets disabled.
load	Demand source and year availability; default gap fill and adjustments disabled.
pypsa_eur	Carrier-to-component mappings for imported PyPSA-Eur data.
biomass	Sustainable/unsustainable biomass shares over time.
sector	Toggles for sector coupling and detailed demand shares; transport/shipping/aviation settings; CO2 sequestration options; fuels and networks; biomass and e-fuels options; imports; offshore hubs limits.
costs	Overwrites for lifetimes/efficiencies and CO2 price trajectory.
clustering	Spatial/temporal clustering and network simplification settings.
adjustments	Optional scaling factors for sector components; currently off.
solving	Solver selection and option set (uses HiGHS by default).
plotting	Thresholds, map projection, balance map settings and factors.
benchmarking	Enables benchmarking.
cba	Cost-benefit analysis settings (hurdle costs, horizons, methods, projects, solver options).

The base config is config.tyndp.yaml. The scenario file scenarios.tyndp.yaml defines per-scenario override blocks (e.g., NT, DE, GA). When a scenario is selected, its keys are merged onto the base config: matching keys override the base values, and nested keys override only their sub-keys.

Examples:

• tyndp_scenario is overwritten by the scenario’s value.

• In DE/GA, electricity.extendable_carriers.Generator replaces the base list for that path.

• In DE/GA, sector.land_transport_ice_share, sector.h2_zones_tyndp, sector.force_biomass_potential, sector.force_biogas_potential, and sector.co2_sequestration_potential override the corresponding base entries.

• If a key is not present in the scenario block, the base config value remains unchanged